Making Decisions in Missile Defense

Synopsis:

This course treats in a consistent manner the various key factors that must be taken into account when deciding on the form of missile defense for any nation. It first takes the technical factors of performance, cost, schedule and risk and determines which system out of a set of candidate systems provides the best solution based on a given set of easily understood criteria. These technical solutions are then modified, in a controlled and transparent manner, by such modifiers as political factors, national requirements and other less tangible factors. All factors are presented with both historical background trends for contextual appreciation and with known values that can be either statistical State-of-Art values or user input values as needed. Engineering formulation of equations and data is provided sparingly where necessary for technical background and for sensitivity analyses. The course provides a methodology that can be used after the course for further use.

Key Topics:

  • Making Decisions & Form of Defense
  • Nature of Missile Threat
  • Performance
  • Cost & Risk
  • Acquisition Schedule
  • Evaluation

Who Should Attend:

This course is designed to help decision makers at all levels in the missile defense business. This includes elected officials of the nations of the Alliance who must deal with broad issues associated with protection of the populace from missile attack. It is for procurement officials in the defense departments who must decide between major programs of defense weapon systems. For senior managers in the defense firms who seek choices between performance, cost, schedule and risk. For military officers who make choices involving defense of forces against a variety of missile attacks. It is for engineers who provide right designs to satisfy other decision makers already listed.

Course Information:

Type of Course: Instructor-Led Short Course
Course Level: Beginner-Intermediate
Course Length: 2 days
AIAA CEU's available: Yes

Outline


I. Making Decisions & Form of Defense
A. Difficulty in Making Decisions
B. Forms & Aims of Defense
C. Measures of Defense
1. Protected Area
2. Survivability (inc WMD)

II. Nature of Missile Threat
A. Ballistic Missiles
B. Cruise Missiles
C. Delivery Mechanisms
D. Lessons from History

III. Performance
A. Layered Defense
B. Defended Footprints
C. Special Topics

IV. Cost & Risk
A. Costs & Budgets
B. Life Cycle Cost Components
C. Architecture Costs
D. Risk Management Methods

V. Acquisition Schedule
A. Acquisition Policies
1. US & Other Nations
2. NATO
B. Program Statistics

VI. Evaluation
A. Formulating the Right Question
B. Analytical Treatment
C. Political Factors
D. Less Precise Decision Making

Materials

 

Instructors

 

Peter Mantle has held engineering and executive positions in industry and government in UK, Canada and US. He was US Navy’s liaison to Strategic Defense Initiative in 1983 and Chairman of NATO studies on missile defense 1990 – 2000. He is author of the 2004 AIAA book “The Missile Defense Equation: Factors for Decision Making”.

 

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